U.S. pollsters have warned about the difficulty of forecasting this year’s midterm results after an upset in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin, where a candidate with a 22-point polling deficit won the race, Financial Times writes. Pollsters have to estimate how many people will show up on election day and reweight their answers based on their assumptions. This is especially hard to do in primary elections since the traditional model of a polarised Democrat-Republican split does not hold. “In primaries, you lose your biggest weighting variable, which is party affiliation . . . So the primaries just become really hard to do,” said Christopher Borick, professor of political science and polling expert.
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